Rex Grossman is Our Quarterback

Midweek Fill

Mr. T — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 22:51:00 +0000

There are two obvious statements to make at this point in the season. There’s a six-day period before the next game in the NCAA Tournament and we’ve only got 3 NCAA Tournament games yet to play. Put those together and we’ve got a nice set of NIT games to play tonight. All plays are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Notre Dame -4 vs. Penn State
San Diego St. +1 vs. Baylor

Record: 90-89 on units (73-71-1 on selections)
Bank: $170.32

Mr. T’s basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

Boom Goes Sooner

Mr. T — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 18:59:00 +0000

In the middle of fantasy baseball draft paradise, there’s no analysis like yesterday. Instead we’re fading Oklahoma with two units on UNC -7 today. Carolina is deep, Oklahoma is not. Carolina has Ty Lawson, Oklahoma does not. Carolina has four guys to throw at Blake Griffin, Oklahoma isn’t deep. UNC is roling and I don’t see Oklahoma getting in their way. Besides, do we really think Crocker is gonna go nuts from outside again?

Record: 88-89 on units (72-71-1 on selections)
Bank: $161.22

Mr. T’s basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

Is All Hope Lost?

Mr. T — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 19:59:00 +0000

I didn’t get a chance to touch on it yesterday, but Memphis’ loss to Missouri was incredibly heartbreaking for Rise and Fire’s leader. I had Memphis winning my main bracket in five of six pools, a nice futures bet on them at 30-1 from January, and the other futures listed as fund plays. I’ve got slim chances of winning money in those pools now with that bracket, but a good chance at winning other pools with secondary entries.

Missouri’s aggressive defense was never going to be an easy task for Memphis, but the way Missouri’s offense cut up the formidable Memphis defense was the real killer. You have to tip your hat to Missouri for playing about as well as they could have. In another Sweet 16 games, Gonzaga fell flat on their face as expected. They were never a blog favorite and proved why in last night’s embarrassment. The quality of the Sweet 16 games as a whole haven’t been that high. Only two games have been competitive and numerous teams put in a disappointing effort.

In Saturday’s first Elite 8 contest Connecticut will look to ride the dominant wave that has carried them so far. Missouri’s press shouldn’t affect UConn as much as it affected Memphis because the Huskies have three natural ball handlers in Price, Walker, and Austrie. Robinson can help out as well which is why I like UConn -5.5 vs. Missouri. The second game presents a Big East slugfest between Villanova and Pittsburgh. Nova has been playing over their heads a bit as I expected them to win, but not be this dominant. Pitt needs to get scoring from other players besides the big three of Fields, Young, and Blair and I expect they will as I play one unit on Pittsburgh -2 vs. Villanova.

Record: 87-88 on units (71-70-1 on selections)
Bank: $161.67

Mr. T’s basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

Sweet 16 Friday Quick Picks

Mr. T — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 22:56:00 +0000

It’s a quick stop between work and the bar for the games, but here’s what we’re going with tonight. Picks are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Syracuse +1 vs. Oklahoma
North Carolina -7.5 vs. Gonzaga (Two units)
Michigan St. -1.5 vs. Kansas

Record: 84-87 on units (69-69-1 on selections)
Bank: $152.38

Mr. T’s basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

The Longest 96 Hours

Mr. T — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 22:58:00 +0000

I started jonesing the minute Louisville wrapped things up against Siena. 96 hours later, we’ve finally returned for more basketball. I got the sour taste of Arizona State out of my mouth with a strong finish to the weekend. While tonight only carries four games for betting purposes, the quality of the actual games should be far superior to anything we’ve seen so far. All picks are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Purdue +6.5 vs. Connecticut
Pittsburgh -6.5 vs. Xavier
Villanova ML (+115) vs. Duke (Two units)

Adding:
Pittsburgh -6.5 2nd half vs. Xavier (Two units)

Still floating:
Pac 10 Team wins over 6.5 +110
Memphis more wins thank Duke -150 (Three units)
Memphis to make Final Four +250 (Three units)

Record: 80-81 on units (67-65-1 on selections)
Bank: $161.78

Mr. T’s basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

James Harden was Paid Off

Mr. T — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 18:27:00 +0000

I’ve had 48 hours to calm down, but the feelings are still very strong. Something happened that caused James Harden to play like an NBDL player over the last weeks of his NCAA career. Harden is supposed to be a top five pick in this year’s NBA draft, but you wouldn’t know it if you only caught the last three games of Arizona State’s season.

Let’s start with Saturday, March 14th when ASU took on USC in the Pac-10 final. The Sun Devils were sitting on a comfortable 15-point half time lead and all looked well. USC came out with a second half press that threw off ASU’s typically methodical offense. Whether it was PG Derek Glasser’s lack of confidence or coach Herb Sendek’s direction, James Harden started bringing the ball up the floor. With a couple well placed turnovers here and poor shots there, USC was on their way to an epic comeback. The game rested in the balance when Harden twice took the ball to the basket, leading to one off-balanced layup attempt and one offensive foul. Who knew I’d be calling for some of that aggression a week later, but we’ll get to that. Harden’s blunders were too much for his teammates to overcome, but it’s hard to do anything when your best player decides to be the selfish aggressor. Maybe Harden was attempting to compensate for his measly nine points in his team’s biggest game of the season to date. Maybe he was trying to get to the line more than his two previous attempts, a number which was his second lowest since January. Or maybe there was another reason…

Harden’s 1 for 8 shooting against Temple in the first round of the NCAA Tournament was inconsequential because it was only Temple and the Sun Devils controlled most of the game. The second round game against Syracuse, however, was not a game ASU could afford Harden to be absent from. Yet at halftime, the Sun Devils were down nine points and there sat James Harden with a first half bagel. Four shots were all Harden took in the first half, all from the same spot at the top of the circle. How could a player known for his slick drives to the basket be relegated to jump shots from the perimeter? Should a coach have to remind his best player, the top five draft pick, that he might be playing in his last college game? I think not. Everyone knows ASU’s fate rested in the hands of their best player, except Small Game James looked as if he had partied too hard in South Beach the night before. Or maybe there was another reason…

Some may call me bitter, but I’m actually going to go as far as to say that I’m stupid. I pride myself on the “eye test” with teams and ASU failed miserably in that category when I watched them in the second half of the Pac-10 final. ASU had looked sharp at multiple points in the season, but that second half screamed out for the team to be devalued. My memory was too short when a couple days later I advanced them to the Elite Eight in my bracket. The efficiency numbers were good, the opponents in their region weren’t as strong as the opponents for other #6 seeds in other regions, and they should’ve been motivated after the Pac-10 disappointment. This was a team was poised to make a run with their effective zone defense, proficient three-point shooting, and Wooden Award candidate. Unfortunately they ran into a Syracuse team that was playing too well to be defeated. Or maybe there was another reason…

James Harden was paid off.

The Best Seven Hours on TV

Mr. T — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 15:25:00 +0000

Maybe it’s a little bit of a stretch, but it’s hard to argue that today marks a great seven hours of college basketball. The four game slate between 2:20pm and 5:00pm is going to be frantic and exhilerating to watch. I’m still shaping up well in the bracket pools, but there’s a lot riding on Arizona St. today. All picks are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Arizona St. +2.5 vs. Syracuse (Two units)
Xavier -3 vs. Wisconsin (Two units)
Louisville -11.5 vs. Siena
Missouri -3 vs. Marquette (Two units)
Kansas -8 vs. Dayton
Oklahoma St. +9.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Added:
Pittsburgh/OSU Under 82 in 2nd Half (Two units)

Record: 73-78 on units (62-63-1 on selections)
Bank: $144.93

Mr. T’s basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

Brackets Don’t Equal Bets

Mr. T — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 16:30:00 +0000

After the first two days of the NCAA tournament, I sit at 26/32 and in good position in the pool standings. It’s probably the best position I’ve been in after the first day in years. Yet, despite this good work on the bracket, the bets don’t seem to be falling. There’s still plenty of time left in the tournament, but it’d be nice to have a day where I went on a little run. It’s not like we’re in the middle of February. Eventually the fund will need to overcome the vig. Games are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Villanova -2.5 vs. UCLA
Memphis -9 vs. Maryland (Two units)
LSU +11.5 vs. UNC
Michigan +7.5 vs. Oklahoma (Two units)
Purdue +1.5 vs. Washington

Record: 69-75 on units (59-61-1 on selections)
Bank: $141.73

Mr. T’s basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

Freaky Friday?

Mr. T — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 15:22:00 +0000

Despite yesterday being the first day of March Madness, there wasn’t much madness to be seen. The only real upsets (excluding 8/9 matchups because it’s usually a coin flip) were Michigan/Clemson and WKU/Illinois and those weren’t exactly jaw dropping. Last year’s first day brought the same result with the only upset being USC over Kansas St., but that wasn’t jaw dropping either. Then on Friday the sky fell with Davidson over Gonzaga, Western Kentucky over Drake, San Diego over Connecticut, Siena over Vanderbilt, and Villanova over Clemson. Will the same thing happen today? Gus Johnson is broadcasting the games in Minnesota, so look for NDSU, Dayton, USC, or Robert Morris to pull an upset in the Twin Cities.

Today’s picks are below and are one unit plays unless otherwise dictated.

Marquette -4.5 vs. Utah State (Two units)
North Dakota St. +10 vs. Kansas (Three units)
Ohio St. -3.5 vs. Siena (Two units)
USC -2.5 vs. Boston College (Two units)
Wisconsin +2.5 vs. Florida St.
West Virginia -9 vs. Dayton
Oklahoma St. +2 vs. Tennessee

Added:
Arizona +105 ML vs. Utah (to win two units – covering the MWC wins bet)

Record: 64-69 on units (55-57 on selections)
Bank: $147.69

Mr. T’s basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

Explaining My Bracket

Mr. T — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 16:01:00 +0000

Now that it is 12:01pm and all bracket entries are locked, I will explain the selections for my bracket. Yes, that might make me look like an ass because I didn’t want to reveal everything, but if you’ve read the blog all year my thoughts should be pretty evident. I’ll break down some selection thoughts by region and then give a Final Four summary. I preface all the commentary by saying a few words. I’ve watched more college basketball this year than ever before. If you ask me about most teams in this tournament, I’ll be able to give you a summary. I won last year’s pool, which reinforced my knowledge I was able to amass. I won not cause of the luck of the four #1 seeds, but because I was strong enough early on and I saw something in Kansas that few others saw. I feel good about my opinions on the bracket, but it’s March and that means anything can happen.

East Region:
I’ve liked Pitt all year, so my choice of them should be pretty obvious. Villanova has the ability to take advantage of Duke’s weaknesses. Nova attacks the rim, hits the offensive boards hard, and can drain threes. Duke will get to the Sweet 16 without issues because neither Texas nor Minnesota is a threat. The pick of Xavier to the Sweet 16 is about being risk averse since FSU/Wisconsin is a toss-up. I chose Wisconsin in that game because I think their slow offensive style and defensive effort will frustrate FSU. Oklahoma St. should beat Tennessee because they’re similar teams with OSU being able to hit threes. Texas beats Minnesota because Minnesota isn’t the same team away from home and they have trouble scoring.

South Region:
I was really hoping for better talent in this bracket. In my opinion, it holds the weakest #2, #3, #4, and #5 seeds. UNC should stroll to the Final Four assuming Ty Lawson has half a toe. The real question is: who will they face to get there? I see Clemson posing a threat to Oklahoma because Missouri showed Oklahoma struggles against the press. I’m taking a shot with Clemson because they could fall to the slow pace of Michigan in the first round, but you need to take some chances. I have Syracuse losing to Arizona St. because I think ASU’s zone and methodical offense will keep the game at a slow pace, which favors them. The real painful decision was ASU over Clemson because I watched ASU completely self-destruct against USC’s pressing defense in the Pac 10 final. That pick is more about ASU having a better chance not to lose. WKU should beat an Illinois team without Frazier. LSU/Butler is a tossup and I’m taking the best player on the floor in Marcus Thornton.

Midwest Region:
Louisville has a pretty easy ride. The only team I see challenging them is Wake Forest, but Wake has shown the tendency to fall asleep. I went with the risk averse selection (notice a pattern yet?). Siena might’ve played a bunch of teams in non-conference play, but they didn’t beat any of them, so I took Ohio St. Arizona might not deserve to be in, but now that they are, they have three very talented dudes who might be too much for Utah. You should know my thoughts on West Virginia by now. I wish the bottom half had a stronger team, but I went with Michigan St. because they have the easier road to travel and more experience than Kansas.

West Region:
Connecticut is the most vulnerable #1 seed. With that in mind, this is my only non-chalk Final Four selection. The Memphis Tigers should be no surprise because I’ve been high on them since they trounced Gonzaga. Both Purdue and Washington could be upset in the first round, so I went with Purdue to the Sweet 16 because I think they have less chance of being upset and better perimeter play than Washington. Missouri will struggle running half-court sets against Memphis’ #1 defense. I’m 90% certain that Marquette won’t crap the bed in the first round because of their senior leadership. California and BYU have too much perimeter game for their opponents in round one.

Final Four:
This is where the rubber hits the road. I went with the two teams in the final who I’ve been backing for the last two months. Louisville’s guard play should catch up to them eventually and I don’t like Carolina’s mental makeup or coaching. Memphis takes home the title because they have the athletes to compete with Blair and Young. Fields will struggle with the quicker and stronger Evans. Memphis takes home the title and makes Mr. T a defending champion.

At least that’s how I dreamt it up last night. Let’s play ball!